2024 Housing Market Guide for Relocation Professionals

As we bid farewell to the complexities of 2023, a year that presented unique challenges for aspiring homeowners, the current state of the housing market offers both hurdles and prospects. The recent gift of declining mortgage rates in late 2023 has sparked optimism, but persistent issues such as high home prices and historically low housing stock continue to shape the landscape for relocating professionals seeking stable housing solutions.

Reflecting on 2023: A Year of Trials for Aspiring Homebuyers

Mid-December ushered in a positive development as the average 30-year fixed rate dipped to 6.61%, marking the ninth consecutive week of declines, according to Freddie Mac. While this decline is welcomed, challenges persist, particularly for first-time buyers, who find homeownership increasingly elusive in the run-up to 2024.

The past year, 2023, posed substantial challenges for those aiming to own a home. Mortgage rates surged to a peak of 7.79%, and median home prices exceeded $400,000 in the third quarter according to Forbes. Some months witnessed average monthly payments reaching an all-time high of $2,306, painting a complex picture for many hopeful homeowners in the relocation process.

Predictions for 2024: Balancing Optimism with Caution

As we step into 2024, the housing market's outlook is nuanced. While home prices are expected to remain elevated, certain areas may experience a softening. Economists express optimism that the Federal Reserve has concluded its rate-hiking campaign, potentially stabilizing mortgage rates. However, affordability challenges are anticipated to persist throughout the year, driven by pent-up demand, low inventory, and lingering elevated mortgage rates.

According to various sources, including Forbes, the following predictions are being discussed for 2024:

Factors Influencing the Housing Market Recovery. For a meaningful housing market recovery, several conditions must align, particularly for professionals in the relocation space. A considerable increase in housing inventories is crucial to alleviate upward pressure on prices. Interest rates, while needing to cool off, should do so at a measured pace to prevent a surge in demand that could counteract inventory gains.

Mortgage Origination Volume. Despite the recent decline in mortgage rates, mortgage application activity remains tepid. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predicts a bottoming out, with total mortgage origination volume expected to increase from $1.64 trillion in 2023 to $1.95 trillion in 2024 as rates drift down to around 6% by the year's end.

Housing Inventory Challenges Persist. The housing market grapples with persistently low inventory, especially in the entry-level segment—a critical consideration for those managing relocations. While there are signs of optimism, including an uptick in home-builder outlook and a slight increase in new single-family building permits, inventory constraints are expected to endure, keeping demand high and prices elevated.

Existing-Home Sales Show a Slight Thaw. Despite challenges, existing-home sales experienced a slight uptick in November, breaking a five-month decline. This unexpected improvement, coupled with declining mortgage rates, raises hopes for a potential turnaround in 2024—a positive development for professionals assisting in employee relocations.

Affordability Challenges Loom Large. Affordability remains a major concern for potential homebuyers in 2024, particularly for those managing relocations. High home prices, coupled with mortgage rates in the high-6% range, have led to a record number of consumers putting home-buying plans on hold. First-time buyers face the toughest challenge, with affordability conditions continuing to deteriorate. Fannie Mae reports that 86% of respondents in their latest survey are planning to put home-buying on hold in 2024.

Foreclosure Outlook for 2024. Foreclosure activity is on an upward trend nationally, but a wave of foreclosures is not anticipated in 2024. Factors such as a strong economy, low unemployment, steady wage growth, and expanded financial relief offerings from mortgage servicers contribute to this optimistic outlook for professionals managing employee relocations.

The Future of the Housing Market. While some areas may experience price declines, the likelihood of a housing market crash remains low. Factors such as positive home equity among homeowners and sustained demand from Millennials entering their prime home-buying years are expected to prevent a rapid drop in home prices. The emphasis is on caution, especially in markets where real estate investors have heavily influenced property prices.

Key Takeaways

Making the decision to buy a home in 2024 is a complex and personal choice for relocating employees. Experts advise against trying to time the market and instead encourage prospective buyers to focus on finding a home that meets their needs and is affordable. Proactive steps, such as moving to lower-priced markets, being financially prepared, and staying informed about prices and listings, can benefit both buyers and sellers in the relocation space.

For relocation professionals, strategic planning, financial preparedness, and staying informed about market trends will be crucial for navigating the evolving dynamics of the real estate landscape in the coming year. Considerations such as assisting employees in moving to lower-priced markets, home purchasing assistance, and staying abreast of market trends will contribute to a successful relocation strategy in 2024.

In the end, the housing market in 2024 presents a nuanced landscape for relocation professionals, with both challenges and opportunities. Whether assisting employees in their relocations or managing corporate housing portfolios, strategic planning, financial preparedness, and staying informed about market trends will be vital for navigating the evolving dynamics of the real estate landscape in the coming year.